Clippers lean on Garland's return after Kawhi Leonard leaves

The Clippers open 2026-27 at home against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, October 21, at 10:30 p.m. ET, without Kawhi Leonard and five injured players, leaning on Darius Garland and rookie Keaton Wagler.

Last season the Clippers went 42-40, finished 9th in the West and missed the playoffs, with a net rating of 1.1. Wagler, the No. 5 pick, is projected for the rotation.

The record shifted with who played. With Kris Dunn, Brook Lopez and Kobe Sanders all in the lineup, the team went 35-26 over 61 games. In the 21 games without one of them it went 7-14. It closed 17-13 over its last 30.

Garland played 45 of 82 games last season after joining from the Cleveland Cavaliers during the year. His last full season was 2024-25: 75 games, 20.6 points and 6.7 assists a game, with a 2.8 impact rating.

Our outlook counts him at 20.9 minutes a game and 0.79, a discount for the long absence. A full return would be more than it holds.

Max Strus played 12 games last season and Bradley Beal six. In 2024-25 Strus scored 9.4 points a game in 50 games and Beal 17 in 53. Beal's impact rating that year was -1.64, below average; Strus's was 0.59.

Three holdovers graded above average last season: Dunn at 1.37 over 82 games, Derrick Jones Jr. at 1.68 in 50, and Lopez at 0.55 in 75.

Leonard went to the Toronto Raptors after 65 games at 32.2 minutes a game and an impact of 7.1. The roster has to replace those minutes and that production.

Bennedict Mathurin, John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic also left, for the Pelicans, Pistons and Rockets, as did Nicolas Batum and Chris Paul. Only 49% of last season's minutes return, so much of the rotation is new.

James Harden and Ivica Zubac left during last season, not this summer. Harden went to Cleveland in January after 44 games, Zubac to Indiana in February after 43.

Brandon Ingram arrives from the Toronto Raptors after 77 games, 21.5 points and 33.8 minutes a game, though his impact rating was -0.44. Rui Hachimura comes from the Los Angeles Lakers at 11.5 points and -0.43. Gradey Dick (Toronto) and Jalen Pickett (Denver Nuggets) add depth.

Baba Miller, taken 36th out of Cincinnati, is on the fringe. Nick Martinelli, 55th out of Northwestern, is on a two-way contract. Wagler came out of Illinois.

Ingram, Strus, Beal and Yanic Konan Niederhauser are each listed to return Sunday, November 8. Beal has knee inflammation, and Niederhauser is progressing from March surgery. The report says Strus's plantar fascia injury could run past its four-week window. The Clippers learned of Ingram's injury this summer.

Jordan Miller, who graded 1.0 in 60 games last season, is out until about March.

Our numbers put the roster 21st of 30 in strength, with a projection of 34 wins and a net rating of -3. That view discounts Garland, Strus and Beal; a healthy return to form from any of them would be more than it holds.