Cleveland runs it back around Donovan Mitchell, minus Darius Garland

The Cleveland Cavaliers did not blow anything up this summer. Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are all still here. Darius Garland is not, and Peyton Watson arrives from the Denver Nuggets to take some of what Garland and a few others leave behind. The question for 2026-27 is whether this group has another level in it, or whether last spring showed its ceiling.

Last season was a long one in the best sense. Cleveland went 52-30, finished 4th in the East and outscored opponents by four points per 100 possessions. Then it played 18 playoff games, before the New York Knicks swept it in its final series, 0-4. A good team that went a long way and then hit a wall.

James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley all played in only 17 of Cleveland's games, and the Cavaliers went 11-6 in them. In the 65 where at least one of them was out, they went 41-24. Sam Merrill missed 30 games, Jarrett Allen 26, Craig Porter 18 and Jaylon Tyson 16.

Who left and who came in

Garland is the famous name out the door, but he played only 26 games last season, at 30.3 minutes and an above-average 0.73, before ending up with the LA Clippers. Cleveland still won 52. The exit that may sting more is Dean Wade's. He went to the Philadelphia 76ers after 59 games at 22.3 minutes and a 1.66, the kind of steady forward who rarely makes headlines and often makes lineups better.

Some exits help. De'Andre Hunter, now with the Sacramento Kings, graded well below average at -2.43 in 26.2 minutes over 43 games, and Keon Ellis (Brooklyn Nets, -0.41) and Max Strus (LA Clippers, -0.39 in 12 games) sat around or just below average.

Watson is the main addition. He gave Denver 14.6 points and 4.9 rebounds in 29.6 minutes over 54 games and graded above average at 1.59. He is listed as probable on the injury report, so he should be ready. Kadary Richmond (3 games for the Washington Wizards) and Curtis Jones (10 games for Denver) barely played. In all, 69% of last season's minutes come back: the bones are the same.

Mitchell first, then everyone else

Donovan Mitchell is the engine. He scored 27.9 points a night with 5.7 assists in 33.5 minutes over 70 games, and our impact rating had him well above average at 4.53, the best mark in this core. In plain terms, Cleveland was about four and a half points per 100 possessions better with him than with an average player.

James Harden is the other half of the backcourt. He put up 23.6 points and 8 assists in 34.9 minutes, more minutes than anyone in this core, and graded comfortably above average at 1.83. Together they give Cleveland two guards who can carry an offense on any given night.

Behind them, the frontcourt does the quiet work. Jarrett Allen averaged 15.4 points and 8.5 rebounds in 27.2 minutes and posted a 3.76, second in this core. Evan Mobley added 18.2 points, 9 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 31.9 minutes with a 2.77. Two bigs who both graded well above average are a big part of why our model likes this team.

The bright spot: Sam Merrill

The number that jumps out belongs to a guard few would put in the first sentence of a Cavaliers preview. Sam Merrill played 52 games at 26.4 minutes, scored 12.8 points a night and graded at 2.52, better than Harden. When he was on the floor, Cleveland played like a better team.

Jaylon Tyson is the other one worth watching. He gave Cleveland 13.2 points and 5.1 rebounds in 27 minutes over 66 games, with a 1.5. With Wade, Hunter and Strus gone, there are wing minutes open, and Tyson looks like the obvious man to take them. Craig Porter, at 1.41 in 17.9 minutes, gives the bench another positive player.

The worries

The first is the way last season ended. Cleveland went 18 playoff games deep and then lost four straight to the Knicks. A sweep does not erase a good year, but it does raise the question of whether this core, mostly unchanged, can win the series it lost.

The second is health. Mitchell and Harden both played 70 games, Mobley 65 and Allen 56. That is enough, but with two guards carrying so much of the offense, a long absence from either would leave a hole Watson cannot fill alone.

The third is depth. Wade's 22.3 minutes need a new owner, and the candidates beyond Tyson and Porter are Richmond, Jones and three rookies: Zack Austin, Meleek Thomas and Ernest Udeh, Jr. None of them has played much NBA basketball yet.

Bottom line

Our roster model ranks Cleveland 5th of 30 and projects about 50 wins, a touch below last season. It reads last season's numbers and nothing more, and training camp can change that quickly. If Watson settles in and Merrill and Tyson take on more, the Cavaliers can beat it. If Mitchell or Harden misses big chunks of time, they will not.

The first test comes on Thursday, October 22, at 7:00 PM ET, in Philadelphia against the 76ers.