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Keel Stats

Efficiency

Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season. How it is computed

In 2024, the Detroit Lions ran the most efficient offense (+0.16 EPA a play) and the Cleveland Browns the least (−0.27); the Denver Broncos allowed the fewest on defense (−0.13) and the Carolina Panthers the most (+0.13). Top passer by EPA a play: Jared Goff (DET), +0.31 over 569 plays. Top rusher by EPA a play: Derrick Henry (BAL), +0.18 over 296 plays. Top receiver by EPA a play: DeVonta Smith (PHI), +0.78 over 87 plays.

Leaderboards

Our model: fitted on 2020 season, 2021 season, 2022 season, 2023 season, 2024 season, 2025 season; graded on 2025 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.50 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.81).

Teams

Teams
OffenseDefense
DET+0.16, 1st in the league55+0.32, 1st in the league0.00, 9th in the league−0.04, 12th in the league49−0.05, 6th in the league0.00, 27th in the league
BAL+0.15, 2nd in the league54+0.19, 2nd in the league+0.11, 1st in the league−0.07, 7th in the league480.00, 14th in the league−0.18, 1st in the league
TB+0.11, 3rd in the league55+0.15, 6th in the league+0.07, 3rd in the league−0.01, 14th in the league52+0.01, 16th in the league−0.06, 17th in the league
WSH+0.11, 4th in the league54+0.14, 7th in the league+0.07, 4th in the league+0.01, 19th in the league50+0.03, 19th in the league−0.02, 25th in the league
BUF+0.09, 5th in the league51+0.18, 4th in the league0.00, 8th in the league+0.01, 20th in the league51+0.05, 20th in the league−0.05, 19th in the league
GB+0.07, 6th in the league51+0.16, 5th in the league−0.02, 11th in the league−0.06, 8th in the league51−0.03, 10th in the league−0.11, 6th in the league
PHI+0.06, 7th in the league49+0.10, 10th in the league+0.03, 6th in the league−0.09, 3rd in the league47−0.07, 4th in the league−0.12, 3rd in the league
CIN+0.06, 8th in the league54+0.19, 3rd in the league−0.18, 31st in the league+0.01, 18th in the league51−0.03, 11th in the league+0.05, 30th in the league
ARI+0.04, 9th in the league52+0.01, 17th in the league+0.08, 2nd in the league+0.03, 29th in the league53+0.08, 24th in the league−0.04, 22nd in the league
KC+0.03, 10th in the league53+0.04, 16th in the league+0.01, 7th in the league−0.02, 13th in the league48+0.03, 18th in the league−0.08, 13th in the league
LAC+0.03, 11th in the league49+0.11, 8th in the league−0.07, 15th in the league−0.09, 4th in the league49−0.09, 3rd in the league−0.09, 12th in the league
SF+0.02, 12th in the league53+0.08, 11th in the league−0.06, 13th in the league+0.02, 27th in the league51+0.05, 21st in the league−0.01, 26th in the league
ATL+0.01, 13th in the league53−0.03, 20th in the league+0.06, 5th in the league+0.04, 30th in the league52+0.08, 26th in the league−0.03, 23rd in the league
MIN0.00, 14th in the league51+0.11, 9th in the league−0.13, 26th in the league−0.10, 2nd in the league48−0.11, 2nd in the league−0.08, 14th in the league
LAR0.00, 15th in the league51+0.07, 12th in the league−0.11, 23rd in the league+0.03, 28th in the league50+0.07, 23rd in the league−0.03, 24th in the league
DEN−0.01, 16th in the league48+0.05, 14th in the league−0.09, 19th in the league−0.13, 1st in the league46−0.15, 1st in the league−0.10, 10th in the league
PIT−0.02, 17th in the league47+0.07, 13th in the league−0.11, 24th in the league−0.08, 5th in the league50−0.04, 8th in the league−0.14, 2nd in the league
MIA−0.03, 18th in the league50+0.05, 15th in the league−0.14, 29th in the league−0.04, 11th in the league500.00, 13th in the league−0.11, 5th in the league
JAX−0.03, 19th in the league490.00, 19th in the league−0.07, 16th in the league+0.07, 31st in the league53+0.16, 31st in the league−0.05, 18th in the league
SEA−0.05, 20th in the league50−0.03, 21st in the league−0.08, 17th in the league−0.06, 9th in the league49−0.04, 7th in the league−0.07, 16th in the league
IND−0.06, 21st in the league48−0.05, 23rd in the league−0.07, 14th in the league0.00, 16th in the league49+0.09, 27th in the league−0.09, 11th in the league
NYJ−0.06, 22nd in the league490.00, 18th in the league−0.16, 30th in the league+0.01, 23rd in the league49+0.09, 29th in the league−0.08, 15th in the league
HOU−0.06, 23rd in the league47−0.04, 22nd in the league−0.10, 21st in the league−0.07, 6th in the league47−0.04, 9th in the league−0.11, 7th in the league
NO−0.08, 24th in the league47−0.06, 25th in the league−0.10, 22nd in the league0.00, 15th in the league52−0.07, 5th in the league+0.09, 32nd in the league
DAL−0.08, 25th in the league49−0.05, 24th in the league−0.12, 25th in the league+0.01, 25th in the league52+0.02, 17th in the league+0.01, 29th in the league
CAR−0.08, 26th in the league49−0.13, 28th in the league−0.01, 10th in the league+0.13, 32nd in the league56+0.20, 32nd in the league+0.07, 31st in the league
CHI−0.11, 27th in the league46−0.08, 26th in the league−0.14, 28th in the league+0.01, 17th in the league51+0.01, 15th in the league+0.01, 28th in the league
NE−0.11, 28th in the league49−0.15, 29th in the league−0.06, 12th in the league+0.02, 26th in the league52+0.08, 25th in the league−0.04, 21st in the league
LV−0.11, 29th in the league46−0.10, 27th in the league−0.14, 27th in the league+0.01, 21st in the league49+0.09, 28th in the league−0.10, 9th in the league
TEN−0.14, 30th in the league47−0.18, 31st in the league−0.08, 18th in the league+0.01, 24th in the league49+0.07, 22nd in the league−0.04, 20th in the league
NYG−0.14, 31st in the league47−0.17, 30th in the league−0.09, 20th in the league+0.01, 22nd in the league50+0.11, 30th in the league−0.10, 8th in the league
CLE−0.27, 32nd in the league45−0.29, 32nd in the league−0.23, 32nd in the league−0.06, 10th in the league480.00, 12th in the league−0.12, 4th in the league

Players

At least 279 dropbacks

Passing
#
1 Jared GoffQB · DET569+0.3161
2 Lamar JacksonQB · BAL495+0.2057
3 Josh AllenQB · BUF476+0.2055
4 Joe BurrowQB · CIN697+0.1959
5 Derek CarrQB · NO291+0.1855
6 Baker MayfieldQB · TB617+0.1559
7 Tua TagovailoaQB · ATL418+0.1460
8 Brock PurdyQB · SF428+0.1259
9 Justin HerbertQB · LAC522+0.1255
10 Jayden DanielsQB · WSH540+0.1154
11 Jalen HurtsQB · PHI404+0.1054
12 Jordan LoveQB · GB455+0.1056
13 Sam DarnoldQB · SEA579+0.1057
14 Matthew StaffordQB · LAR561+0.0757
15 Patrick MahomesQB · KC636+0.0755
16 Bo NixQB · DEN607+0.0552
17 Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX300+0.0255
18 Kyler MurrayQB · MIN577+0.0256
19 Geno SmithQB · NYJ616+0.0155
20 Russell WilsonQB · NYG3670.0050
21 Aaron RodgersQB · PIT626−0.0251
22 C.J. StroudQB · HOU602−0.0252
23 Kirk CousinsQB · MIN495−0.0457
24 Gardner Minshew IIQB · ARI312−0.0650
25 Cooper RushQB · ATL329−0.0850
26 Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI643−0.0948
27 Daniel JonesQB · IND385−0.1253
28 Bryce YoungQB · CAR412−0.1350
29 Drake MayeQB · NE374−0.1851
30 Jameis WinstonQB · NYG316−0.1950
31 Will LevisQB · NYJ339−0.2345