Efficiency
Expected points added (EPA) per play from our own model: how much each play raised or lowered the points a team could expect, given down, distance, field position and the clock. Success rate: the share of plays that added any. Passes and runs only, regular season.
Our model: fitted on 2024–25 season, 2025–26 season, 2026–27 season; graded on 2025–26 season, which it never saw, it is off by 3.48 points on average against the next score (a plain average: 3.75).
Teams
| Team | Offense | Defense | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/play | Success | Pass | Run | EPA/play | Success | Pass | Run | |
 DET | +0.18, 1st in the league | 54 | +0.41, 1st in the league | −0.06, 9th in the league | −0.03, 11th in the league | 47 | +0.03, 8th in the league | −0.12, 16th in the league |
 BAL | +0.17, 2nd in the league | 54 | +0.26, 3rd in the league | +0.07, 1st in the league | −0.03, 10th in the league | 47 | +0.13, 20th in the league | −0.29, 1st in the league |
 WSH | +0.14, 3rd in the league | 54 | +0.21, 7th in the league | +0.07, 2nd in the league | +0.02, 18th in the league | 50 | +0.09, 16th in the league | −0.06, 26th in the league |
 TB | +0.14, 4th in the league | 55 | +0.23, 6th in the league | +0.02, 4th in the league | +0.01, 13th in the league | 51 | +0.07, 11th in the league | −0.10, 18th in the league |
 BUF | +0.14, 5th in the league | 51 | +0.29, 2nd in the league | −0.03, 8th in the league | +0.02, 17th in the league | 50 | +0.15, 24th in the league | −0.17, 4th in the league |
 CIN | +0.08, 6th in the league | 53 | +0.24, 4th in the league | −0.19, 28th in the league | +0.02, 19th in the league | 50 | +0.05, 9th in the league | −0.01, 30th in the league |
 PHI | +0.08, 7th in the league | 49 | +0.15, 12th in the league | +0.03, 3rd in the league | −0.09, 2nd in the league | 46 | −0.05, 2nd in the league | −0.14, 14th in the league |
 GB | +0.07, 8th in the league | 50 | +0.24, 5th in the league | −0.09, 10th in the league | −0.05, 8th in the league | 50 | +0.03, 7th in the league | −0.15, 10th in the league |
 KC | +0.06, 9th in the league | 52 | +0.11, 16th in the league | −0.02, 7th in the league | +0.01, 14th in the league | 47 | +0.11, 18th in the league | −0.14, 15th in the league |
 LAC | +0.05, 10th in the league | 48 | +0.18, 9th in the league | −0.10, 11th in the league | −0.06, 4th in the league | 49 | −0.04, 3rd in the league | −0.10, 17th in the league |
 SF | +0.05, 11th in the league | 52 | +0.18, 8th in the league | −0.10, 12th in the league | +0.05, 28th in the league | 51 | +0.17, 27th in the league | −0.08, 24th in the league |
 ARI | +0.05, 12th in the league | 52 | +0.11, 17th in the league | −0.02, 6th in the league | +0.04, 24th in the league | 52 | +0.11, 17th in the league | −0.05, 28th in the league |
 ATL | +0.03, 13th in the league | 52 | +0.06, 21st in the league | −0.01, 5th in the league | +0.06, 29th in the league | 51 | +0.16, 26th in the league | −0.09, 19th in the league |
 LAR | +0.02, 14th in the league | 51 | +0.15, 11th in the league | −0.15, 21st in the league | +0.05, 27th in the league | 50 | +0.15, 22nd in the league | −0.06, 25th in the league |
 MIN | +0.01, 15th in the league | 49 | +0.17, 10th in the league | −0.20, 29th in the league | −0.07, 3rd in the league | 47 | −0.02, 4th in the league | −0.16, 6th in the league |
 DEN | 0.00, 16th in the league | 48 | +0.13, 14th in the league | −0.17, 26th in the league | −0.12, 1st in the league | 46 | −0.10, 1st in the league | −0.14, 11th in the league |
 JAX | 0.00, 17th in the league | 48 | +0.09, 19th in the league | −0.12, 13th in the league | +0.09, 31st in the league | 52 | +0.23, 31st in the league | −0.09, 21st in the league |
 IND | −0.01, 18th in the league | 48 | +0.12, 15th in the league | −0.14, 17th in the league | +0.03, 21st in the league | 48 | +0.19, 30th in the league | −0.14, 13th in the league |
 PIT | −0.01, 19th in the league | 46 | +0.14, 13th in the league | −0.17, 23rd in the league | −0.06, 5th in the league | 49 | +0.08, 14th in the league | −0.27, 2nd in the league |
 MIA | −0.01, 20th in the league | 50 | +0.10, 18th in the league | −0.17, 25th in the league | −0.02, 12th in the league | 49 | +0.08, 15th in the league | −0.17, 5th in the league |
 NYJ | −0.02, 21st in the league | 49 | +0.08, 20th in the league | −0.20, 30th in the league | +0.03, 22nd in the league | 48 | +0.14, 21st in the league | −0.09, 20th in the league |
 SEA | −0.03, 22nd in the league | 50 | +0.03, 23rd in the league | −0.14, 16th in the league | −0.06, 6th in the league | 48 | +0.02, 6th in the league | −0.15, 8th in the league |
 HOU | −0.04, 23rd in the league | 46 | +0.04, 22nd in the league | −0.14, 15th in the league | −0.05, 7th in the league | 47 | +0.07, 13th in the league | −0.21, 3rd in the league |
 NO | −0.05, 24th in the league | 46 | +0.02, 24th in the league | −0.13, 14th in the league | +0.03, 20th in the league | 52 | +0.01, 5th in the league | +0.05, 32nd in the league |
 CAR | −0.07, 25th in the league | 48 | −0.01, 25th in the league | −0.16, 22nd in the league | +0.14, 32nd in the league | 55 | +0.26, 32nd in the league | +0.02, 31st in the league |
 DAL | −0.08, 26th in the league | 47 | −0.04, 26th in the league | −0.15, 19th in the league | +0.06, 30th in the league | 51 | +0.13, 19th in the league | −0.02, 29th in the league |
 CHI | −0.09, 27th in the league | 46 | −0.04, 27th in the league | −0.15, 20th in the league | +0.01, 15th in the league | 50 | +0.07, 12th in the league | −0.05, 27th in the league |
 NE | −0.10, 28th in the league | 48 | −0.07, 30th in the league | −0.14, 18th in the league | +0.04, 25th in the league | 51 | +0.15, 25th in the league | −0.08, 22nd in the league |
 LV | −0.12, 29th in the league | 45 | −0.06, 28th in the league | −0.22, 31st in the league | +0.05, 26th in the league | 47 | +0.19, 29th in the league | −0.14, 12th in the league |
 NYG | −0.12, 30th in the league | 46 | −0.09, 31st in the league | −0.17, 24th in the league | +0.02, 16th in the league | 50 | +0.17, 28th in the league | −0.16, 7th in the league |
 TEN | −0.12, 31st in the league | 47 | −0.07, 29th in the league | −0.18, 27th in the league | +0.04, 23rd in the league | 49 | +0.15, 23rd in the league | −0.08, 23rd in the league |
 CLE | −0.23, 32nd in the league | 44 | −0.17, 32nd in the league | −0.34, 32nd in the league | −0.04, 9th in the league | 47 | +0.06, 10th in the league | −0.15, 9th in the league |
Players
At least 276 dropbacks
Jared Goff
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Joe Burrow
Baker Mayfield
Tua Tagovailoa
Brock Purdy
Justin Herbert
Sam Darnold
Jordan Love
Jayden Daniels
Matthew Stafford
Patrick Mahomes
Jalen Hurts
Bo Nix
Trevor Lawrence
Kyler Murray
C.J. Stroud
Geno Smith
Kirk Cousins
Bryce Young
Gardner Minshew II
Caleb Williams
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Cooper Rush
Will Levis
Drake Maye