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Player ratings

Keel Impact is our all-in-one number: points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one, split into offence and defence. It is regularised adjusted plus-minus over every lineup of the season, shrunk toward what his box score predicts rather than toward zero — the approach behind the public impact metrics, fitted on our own play by play. Garbage time is left out. Next to it, the classic ratings, all computed here from the same games.

Which rating knows the most

Each rating from one season, the players who took the floor the next, weighted by their minutes: how well that predicts every game margin of the next season (correlation, higher is better). Averaged over 2023-24 → 2024-25 and 2024-25 → 2025-26; hover or use the arrow keys for each.

0.00.10.20.30.40.5Box prior0.428PER0.426Keel Impact0.425RAPM0.403Game Score / 360.402On-court net0.377On/off0.308Team net (no players)0.283

Table
Rating2023-24 → 2024-252024-25 → 2025-26
Box prior0.420 · 66%0.437 · 68%
PER0.406 · 66%0.446 · 68%
Keel Impact0.447 · 68%0.403 · 64%
RAPM0.434 · 67%0.372 · 63%
Game Score / 360.379 · 66%0.426 · 66%
On-court net0.412 · 66%0.342 · 63%
On/off0.334 · 63%0.282 · 62%
Team net (no players)0.297 · 59%0.269 · 58%

The honest read: the gaps at the top are within noise over two seasons (1,229 games each). Plain plus-minus and on/off trail the box-score ratings; Impact is the one that also splits offence from defence.

Where the numbers disagree

Impact against PER, in standard deviations, 1,000+ minutes.

top 40%top 20%top 5%
RankPlayer
1Nikola JokicDEN+8.631.929.52,575
2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC+8.430.428.32,632
3Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL+7.030.527.82,327
4Luka DoncicLAL+5.024.222.91,766
5Victor WembanyamaSAS+4.824.222.51,526
6Ivica ZubacLAC+4.622.419.02,623
7Ty JeromeCLE+4.521.019.41,390
8Dorian Finney-SmithLAL+4.410.28.91,819
9Jarrett AllenCLE+4.322.219.22,295
10Stephen CurryGSW+4.221.421.22,249
11Evan MobleyCLE+4.122.320.12,170
12Amen ThompsonHOU+4.018.716.12,224
13Derrick WhiteBOS+3.916.514.82,571
14Anthony DavisLAL+3.926.323.71,704
15Luke KornetBOS+3.819.715.61,364
16Alex CarusoOKC+3.815.713.71,064
17Tyrese HaliburtonIND+3.821.920.22,453
18Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM+3.819.619.22,204
19Franz WagnerORL+3.720.118.72,024
20Christian BraunDEN+3.616.014.62,676
21Jayson TatumBOS+3.621.720.32,623
22Pascal SiakamIND+3.619.218.02,553
23Donovan MitchellCLE+3.520.820.32,230
24Alperen SengunHOU+3.521.419.12,399
25Daniel GaffordDAL+3.524.720.81,231
26Kawhi LeonardQuestionable, expected back Oct 10LAC+3.520.518.71,178
27Kyrie IrvingQuestionable, expected back Oct 9DAL+3.220.018.61,801
28Jimmy ButlerOut, expected back Jan 2GSW+3.222.420.31,747
29Al HorfordBOS+3.212.911.21,660
30Aaron WigginsOKC+3.115.914.51,716
31Karl-Anthony TownsNYK+3.123.321.02,518
32Draymond GreenGSW+3.112.411.51,981
33Keon EllisSAC+3.013.511.51,948
34Rudy GobertMIN+3.018.415.22,392
35Miles McBrideNYK+3.012.611.41,597
36Mike ConleyMIN+2.913.312.01,756
37Kevin DurantPHX+2.921.019.92,268
38Brandon ClarkeMEM+2.917.515.61,209
39Isaiah JoeOKC+2.813.912.81,590
40Norman PowellLAC+2.817.416.31,959
41Darius GarlandCLE+2.819.819.12,300
42Jakob PoeltlTOR+2.820.217.71,687
43John CollinsUTA+2.819.017.61,220
44Aaron NesmithIND+2.614.513.51,123
45Jamal MurrayDEN+2.517.817.22,421
46Goga BitadzeORL+2.519.315.41,435
47James HardenLAC+2.519.919.02,790
48Payton PritchardBOS+2.517.515.42,275
49Ausar ThompsonDET+2.517.215.21,329
50Naz ReidMIN+2.415.814.42,205
51Onyeka OkongwuATL+2.319.117.42,060
52Austin ReavesLAL+2.318.116.92,551
53Fred VanVleetHOU+2.312.811.92,113
54Chris PaulSAS+2.314.713.62,291
55Domantas SabonisSAC+2.322.920.22,428
56Anthony EdwardsMIN+2.320.119.22,868
57Trae YoungATL+2.318.219.22,738
58Jalen DurenQuestionable, expected back Oct 5DET+2.321.618.32,029
59Brandin PodziemskiGSW+2.314.313.61,720
60Aaron GordonDEN+2.317.015.91,447
61Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM+2.215.815.21,681
62Ja MorantMEM+2.219.420.11,515
63Dean WadeCLE+2.210.18.91,255
64Tari EasonHOU+2.218.515.81,419
65Tyler HerroMIA+2.219.718.52,726
66Jalen JohnsonATL+2.217.216.91,285
67Isaiah HartensteinOKC+2.219.116.51,621
68Walker KesslerUTA+2.120.116.71,743
69Tobias HarrisDET+2.113.912.92,297
70Josh GiddeyCHI+2.118.017.52,116
71Kenrich WilliamsOKC+2.013.612.11,109
72Nicolas BatumLAC+2.010.48.71,364
73Kris DunnLAC+2.011.39.71,785
74Nikola VucevicCHI+2.020.319.22,274
75Kevon LooneyGSW+2.017.114.31,145
76Cameron PayneNYK+2.013.812.91,089
77Zach EdeyQuestionable, expected back Oct 5MEM+1.918.316.01,419
78A.J. GreenMIL+1.99.18.41,668
79Dyson DanielsATL+1.915.614.62,573
80Damian LillardMIL+1.921.220.12,129
81Kristaps PorzingisQuestionable, expected back Oct 13BOS+1.922.119.71,208
82P.J. WashingtonDAL+1.814.013.01,833
83Cade CunninghamDET+1.820.520.22,452
84Brook LopezMIL+1.814.812.92,583
85Isaac OkoroCLE+1.810.79.51,056
86LeBron JamesLAL+1.822.721.32,447
87Luguentz DortOKC+1.711.19.92,107
88Cameron JohnsonBKN+1.718.316.81,800
89Myles TurnerIND+1.616.314.92,174
90Cason WallaceOKC+1.612.310.81,900
91Harrison BarnesSAS+1.614.913.82,230
92Malik BeasleyDET+1.614.213.62,266
93OG AnunobyNYK+1.615.413.82,706
94Santi AldamaQuestionable, expected back Oct 9MEM+1.616.716.01,658
95Jaylen BrownBOS+1.517.616.62,160
96Deni AvdijaPOR+1.517.716.42,161
97Nickeil Alexander-WalkerMIN+1.511.610.72,074
98Davion MitchellTOR+1.510.39.52,026
99Jabari Smith Jr.HOU+1.512.611.31,715
100Miles BridgesCHA+1.517.517.12,029
101D'Angelo RussellLAL+1.513.913.61,479
102Jrue HolidayBOS+1.513.311.91,901
103Bam AdebayoMIA+1.418.916.92,679
104Rui HachimuraLAL+1.413.512.11,866
105Jake LaRaviaMEM+1.412.611.61,350
106Jaxson HayesLAL+1.415.913.11,093
107Kel'el WareMIA+1.417.614.71,421
108Sam MerrillCLE+1.311.010.21,406
109Jonathan IsaacProbable, expected back Oct 7ORL+1.316.713.61,089
110Luke KennardMEM+1.313.613.01,471
111Mikal BridgesNYK+1.314.012.93,040
112Mason PlumleePHX+1.314.812.31,300
113Zach LaVineCHI+1.317.416.92,610
114Caris LeVertCLE+1.315.214.51,592
115Donovan ClinganPOR+1.217.414.11,326
116Derrick Jones Jr.LAC+1.213.611.81,874
117DeMar DeRozanSAC+1.217.716.72,767
118Sam HauserBOS+1.212.911.21,541
119Dennis SchroderBKN+1.112.612.62,108
120Andrew NembhardIND+1.111.711.21,883
121Gary Trent Jr.MIL+1.111.811.01,913
122Tyrese MaxeyPHI+1.019.618.31,963
123Donte DiVincenzoOut, expected back Apr 1MIN+1.014.213.01,605
124Kentavious Caldwell-PopeORL+1.09.98.72,278
125Isaiah StewartDET+0.914.712.41,433
126Justin ChampagnieWAS+0.915.813.91,339
127Desmond BaneMEM+0.917.817.62,203
128Tyus JonesPHX+0.914.513.32,172
129Toumani CamaraPOR+0.912.610.92,550
130Jalen BrunsonNYK+0.821.620.32,301
131Josh HartNYK+0.816.614.42,896
132Jalen WilliamsOKC+0.820.219.02,272
133T.J. McConnellQuestionable, expected back Oct 7IND+0.818.417.41,417
134Devin BookerPHX+0.819.218.62,795
135Wendell Carter Jr.ORL+0.713.811.71,760
136Kevin HuerterSAC+0.711.210.81,679
137Jalen SuggsORL+0.714.013.61,004
138Haywood HighsmithMIA+0.710.08.51,818
139Scottie BarnesTOR+0.717.817.42,136
140Julian PhillipsCHI+0.610.29.51,125
141Guerschon YabuselePHI+0.614.812.71,893
142Oso IghodaroPHX+0.611.29.41,042
143Max StrusCLE+0.612.611.61,273
144Lauri MarkkanenUTA+0.515.615.11,475
145De'Andre HunterATL+0.515.915.61,742
146LaMelo BallCHA+0.518.919.01,505
147Kevin Porter Jr.LAC+0.515.414.61,482
148Keegan MurraySAC+0.512.010.62,606
149Nikola JovicMIA+0.513.712.51,160
150Collin SextonUTA+0.516.616.31,762
151Jaden McDanielsMIN+0.413.311.72,619
152Bobby PortisMIL+0.417.416.01,262
153Jeremy SochanSAS+0.415.914.41,364
154Vit KrejciATL+0.312.711.91,153
155Michael Porter Jr.DEN+0.316.215.32,595
156Cody MartinCHA+0.311.410.11,173
157Dillon BrooksHOU+0.311.010.12,388
158Scoot HendersonPOR+0.312.612.21,760
159Malik MonkSAC+0.314.814.42,054
160Jose AlvaradoNOP+0.213.713.01,332
161Kyle AndersonQuestionable, expected back Oct 10GSW+0.215.113.41,005
162Paul GeorgePHI+0.214.513.51,335
163Jonathan KumingaGSW+0.215.815.71,143
164Grayson AllenPHX+0.213.612.61,544
165Moussa DiabateCHA+0.216.613.61,242
166Clint CapelaATL+0.117.615.81,182
167De'Aaron FoxSAC+0.018.017.52,242
168Javonte GreenNOP0.010.89.51,257
169Julius RandleMIN-0.017.616.32,227
170Moses MoodyOut, expected back Dec 1GSW-0.012.311.71,652
171Jaylen WellsMEM-0.010.410.32,045
172Matas BuzelisCHI-0.212.412.11,514
173Paolo BancheroORL-0.220.219.01,581
174Ryan DunnPHX-0.210.89.61,408
175Dalton KnechtLAL-0.212.711.91,492
176Bogdan BogdanovicLAC-0.211.110.81,346
177Coby WhiteCHI-0.215.415.92,449
178Bennedict MathurinIND-0.213.613.42,150
179Naji MarshallDAL-0.215.214.01,917
180Ochai AgbajiTOR-0.212.011.01,743
181Max ChristieLAL-0.210.49.72,125
182Ben SimmonsBKN-0.312.611.01,119
183Buddy HieldGSW-0.312.212.01,867
184RJ BarrettTOR-0.316.416.71,868
185Peyton WatsonProbable, expected back Oct 8DEN-0.311.410.41,657
186Royce O'NealePHX-0.312.611.31,842
187Taurean PrinceMIL-0.49.78.82,190
188Mark WilliamsOut, expected back Feb 3CHA-0.423.720.71,169
189Anfernee SimonsPOR-0.414.914.52,290
190Seth CurryCHA-0.412.211.21,059
191Ja'Kobe WalterTOR-0.510.810.51,104
192Jordan PooleWAS-0.516.616.72,004
193Dalano BantonPOR-0.512.812.61,121
194Julian ChampagnieSAS-0.512.211.61,933
195CJ McCollumNOP-0.615.615.51,834
196Jusuf NurkicPHX-0.615.113.71,062
197Georges NiangCLE-0.611.210.91,696
198Duncan RobinsonMIA-0.611.811.11,787
199Trey Murphy IIINOP-0.617.216.41,856
200Deandre AytonPOR-0.617.915.41,210
201Anthony BlackQuestionable, expected back Oct 7ORL-0.611.710.71,882
202Jalen GreenHOU-0.715.014.72,698
203Tim Hardaway Jr.DET-0.79.99.72,140
204Devin VassellSAS-0.714.113.81,984
205Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI-0.813.612.02,083
206Obi ToppinIND-0.817.416.11,546
207Andrew WigginsGSW-0.816.415.61,841
208Cole AnthonyORL-1.014.213.21,234
209Jonas ValanciunasWAS-1.021.018.71,522
210Patrick WilliamsCHI-1.09.09.21,574
211Gabe VincentLAL-1.07.46.91,526
212Kris MurrayPOR-1.09.18.21,041
213Dejounte MurrayNOP-1.115.215.41,012
214Caleb MartinPHI-1.19.78.61,218
215Josh GreenCHA-1.17.87.11,890
216Keldon JohnsonSAS-1.115.614.91,831
217Ziaire WilliamsBKN-1.111.910.91,544
218Quentin GrimesDAL-1.215.714.72,015
219Klay ThompsonDAL-1.212.812.31,972
220Terance MannLAC-1.212.211.01,415
221Trey LylesSAC-1.312.410.91,349
222Ayo DosunmuCHI-1.312.712.51,393
223Nick RichardsPHX-1.316.714.31,256
224Shaedon SharpeOut, expected back Mar 2POR-1.314.614.12,248
225Precious AchiuwaNYK-1.313.711.61,168
226Jalen WilsonBKN-1.59.59.12,032
227Zaccharie RisacherATL-1.512.212.31,844
228Jamal SheadTOR-1.59.910.01,464
229Nicolas ClaxtonBKN-1.516.614.11,885
230Ben SheppardIND-1.69.28.31,231
231Spencer DinwiddieDAL-1.613.012.42,133
232Russell WestbrookDEN-1.614.214.02,094
233Jared ButlerPHI-1.615.314.71,045
234Bradley BealQuestionable, expected back Oct 4PHX-1.615.214.21,698
235Corey KispertWAS-1.710.910.81,601
236KyShawn GeorgeWAS-1.78.88.61,802
237Stephon CastleSAS-1.713.613.92,162
238Kyle FilipowskiUTA-1.914.913.71,518
239Jerami GrantPOR-1.910.810.51,525
240Simone FontecchioDET-2.09.59.11,219
241Brice SensabaughUTA-2.013.313.01,435
242Bilal CoulibalyWAS-2.010.810.51,948
243Jonathan MogboTOR-2.111.910.81,287
244Tristan Da SilvaORL-2.19.98.91,631
245Yves MissiNOP-2.215.513.11,960
246Alexandre SarrQuestionable, expected back Oct 8WAS-2.212.912.61,816
247Jarace WalkerIND-2.212.011.21,190
248Gradey DickTOR-2.310.911.11,591
249Terry RozierMIA-2.310.510.31,655
250DaQuan JeffriesCHA-2.38.07.31,070
251Keyonte GeorgeUTA-2.412.813.32,106
252Jamison BattleQuestionable, expected back Oct 10TOR-2.410.610.21,040
253Ronald Holland IIDET-2.411.110.51,246
254Julian StrawtherDEN-2.49.59.51,385
255Amir CoffeyLAC-2.411.210.21,748
256Tyrese MartinBKN-2.410.910.41,312
257Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA-2.514.313.01,373
258Jeremiah Robinson-EarlNOP-2.513.111.51,208
259Justin EdwardsPHI-2.611.210.11,150
260Johnny JuzangUTA-2.611.811.21,266
261Isaiah CollierUTA-2.99.79.91,838
262Keon JohnsonBKN-3.010.410.11,926
263Ricky Council IVPHI-3.111.610.91,255
264Jordan HawkinsNOP-3.39.59.81,323
265Noah ClowneyBKN-3.59.28.91,045
266Kyle KuzmaMIL-3.910.210.61,924
267Tidjane SalaunCHA-4.67.77.41,246
268Carlton CarringtonWAS-4.69.09.12,456
269Cody WilliamsUTA-5.03.64.01,056
270Nick Smith Jr.CHA-5.28.28.81,368
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Regular season. Ratings shrink small samples hard: a bench player's Impact stays near zero until the minutes say otherwise. RAPM penalty λ 3000, Impact λ 5000, chosen by cross-validation on held-out games.