Player ratings
Keel Impact is our all-in-one number: points per 100 possessions a player adds over an average one, split into offence and defence. It is regularised adjusted plus-minus over every lineup of the season, shrunk toward what his box score predicts rather than toward zero — the approach behind the public impact metrics, fitted on our own play by play. Garbage time is left out. Next to it, the classic ratings, all computed here from the same games.
Which rating knows the most
Each rating from one season, the players who took the floor the next, weighted by their minutes: how well that predicts every game margin of the next season (correlation, higher is better). Averaged over 2023-24 → 2024-25 and 2024-25 → 2025-26; hover or use the arrow keys for each.
Table
| Rating | 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 2024-25 → 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|
| Box prior | 0.420 · 66% | 0.437 · 68% |
| PER | 0.406 · 66% | 0.446 · 68% |
| Keel Impact | 0.447 · 68% | 0.403 · 64% |
| RAPM | 0.434 · 67% | 0.372 · 63% |
| Game Score / 36 | 0.379 · 66% | 0.426 · 66% |
| On-court net | 0.412 · 66% | 0.342 · 63% |
| On/off | 0.334 · 63% | 0.282 · 62% |
| Team net (no players) | 0.297 · 59% | 0.269 · 58% |
The honest read: the gaps at the top are within noise over two seasons (1,229 games each). Plain plus-minus and on/off trail the box-score ratings; Impact is the one that also splits offence from defence.
Where the numbers disagree
Impact against PER, in standard deviations, 1,000+ minutes.
| Rank | Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +8.6 | 31.9 | 29.5 | 2,575 | |
| 2 | +8.4 | 30.4 | 28.3 | 2,632 | |
| 3 | +7.0 | 30.5 | 27.8 | 2,327 | |
| 4 | +5.0 | 24.2 | 22.9 | 1,766 | |
| 5 | +4.8 | 24.2 | 22.5 | 1,526 | |
| 6 | +4.6 | 22.4 | 19.0 | 2,623 | |
| 7 | +4.5 | 21.0 | 19.4 | 1,390 | |
| 8 | +4.4 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 1,819 | |
| 9 | +4.3 | 22.2 | 19.2 | 2,295 | |
| 10 | +4.2 | 21.4 | 21.2 | 2,249 | |
| 11 | +4.1 | 22.3 | 20.1 | 2,170 | |
| 12 | Amen ThompsonHOU | +4.0 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 2,224 |
| 13 | +3.9 | 16.5 | 14.8 | 2,571 | |
| 14 | +3.9 | 26.3 | 23.7 | 1,704 | |
| 15 | +3.8 | 19.7 | 15.6 | 1,364 | |
| 16 | +3.8 | 15.7 | 13.7 | 1,064 | |
| 17 | +3.8 | 21.9 | 20.2 | 2,453 | |
| 18 | +3.8 | 19.6 | 19.2 | 2,204 | |
| 19 | +3.7 | 20.1 | 18.7 | 2,024 | |
| 20 | +3.6 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 2,676 | |
| 21 | +3.6 | 21.7 | 20.3 | 2,623 | |
| 22 | +3.6 | 19.2 | 18.0 | 2,553 | |
| 23 | +3.5 | 20.8 | 20.3 | 2,230 | |
| 24 | +3.5 | 21.4 | 19.1 | 2,399 | |
| 25 | +3.5 | 24.7 | 20.8 | 1,231 | |
| 26 | +3.5 | 20.5 | 18.7 | 1,178 | |
| 27 | +3.2 | 20.0 | 18.6 | 1,801 | |
| 28 | +3.2 | 22.4 | 20.3 | 1,747 | |
| 29 | +3.2 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 1,660 | |
| 30 | +3.1 | 15.9 | 14.5 | 1,716 | |
| 31 | +3.1 | 23.3 | 21.0 | 2,518 | |
| 32 | +3.1 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 1,981 | |
| 33 | +3.0 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 1,948 | |
| 34 | +3.0 | 18.4 | 15.2 | 2,392 | |
| 35 | Miles McBrideNYK | +3.0 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 1,597 |
| 36 | +2.9 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 1,756 | |
| 37 | +2.9 | 21.0 | 19.9 | 2,268 | |
| 38 | +2.9 | 17.5 | 15.6 | 1,209 | |
| 39 | +2.8 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 1,590 | |
| 40 | +2.8 | 17.4 | 16.3 | 1,959 | |
| 41 | +2.8 | 19.8 | 19.1 | 2,300 | |
| 42 | Jakob PoeltlTOR | +2.8 | 20.2 | 17.7 | 1,687 |
| 43 | +2.8 | 19.0 | 17.6 | 1,220 | |
| 44 | +2.6 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 1,123 | |
| 45 | +2.5 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 2,421 | |
| 46 | +2.5 | 19.3 | 15.4 | 1,435 | |
| 47 | +2.5 | 19.9 | 19.0 | 2,790 | |
| 48 | +2.5 | 17.5 | 15.4 | 2,275 | |
| 49 | +2.5 | 17.2 | 15.2 | 1,329 | |
| 50 | +2.4 | 15.8 | 14.4 | 2,205 | |
| 51 | +2.3 | 19.1 | 17.4 | 2,060 | |
| 52 | +2.3 | 18.1 | 16.9 | 2,551 | |
| 53 | +2.3 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 2,113 | |
| 54 | +2.3 | 14.7 | 13.6 | 2,291 | |
| 55 | +2.3 | 22.9 | 20.2 | 2,428 | |
| 56 | +2.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 2,868 | |
| 57 | +2.3 | 18.2 | 19.2 | 2,738 | |
| 58 | +2.3 | 21.6 | 18.3 | 2,029 | |
| 59 | Brandin PodziemskiGSW | +2.3 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 1,720 |
| 60 | +2.3 | 17.0 | 15.9 | 1,447 | |
| 61 | +2.2 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 1,681 | |
| 62 | +2.2 | 19.4 | 20.1 | 1,515 | |
| 63 | +2.2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 1,255 | |
| 64 | +2.2 | 18.5 | 15.8 | 1,419 | |
| 65 | +2.2 | 19.7 | 18.5 | 2,726 | |
| 66 | +2.2 | 17.2 | 16.9 | 1,285 | |
| 67 | +2.2 | 19.1 | 16.5 | 1,621 | |
| 68 | +2.1 | 20.1 | 16.7 | 1,743 | |
| 69 | +2.1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 2,297 | |
| 70 | +2.1 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 2,116 | |
| 71 | Kenrich WilliamsOKC | +2.0 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 1,109 |
| 72 | +2.0 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 1,364 | |
| 73 | +2.0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 1,785 | |
| 74 | +2.0 | 20.3 | 19.2 | 2,274 | |
| 75 | +2.0 | 17.1 | 14.3 | 1,145 | |
| 76 | +2.0 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 1,089 | |
| 77 | +1.9 | 18.3 | 16.0 | 1,419 | |
| 78 | +1.9 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 1,668 | |
| 79 | +1.9 | 15.6 | 14.6 | 2,573 | |
| 80 | +1.9 | 21.2 | 20.1 | 2,129 | |
| 81 | +1.9 | 22.1 | 19.7 | 1,208 | |
| 82 | +1.8 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 1,833 | |
| 83 | +1.8 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 2,452 | |
| 84 | +1.8 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 2,583 | |
| 85 | +1.8 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 1,056 | |
| 86 | +1.8 | 22.7 | 21.3 | 2,447 | |
| 87 | +1.7 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 2,107 | |
| 88 | +1.7 | 18.3 | 16.8 | 1,800 | |
| 89 | +1.6 | 16.3 | 14.9 | 2,174 | |
| 90 | +1.6 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 1,900 | |
| 91 | +1.6 | 14.9 | 13.8 | 2,230 | |
| 92 | +1.6 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 2,266 | |
| 93 | +1.6 | 15.4 | 13.8 | 2,706 | |
| 94 | +1.6 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 1,658 | |
| 95 | +1.5 | 17.6 | 16.6 | 2,160 | |
| 96 | +1.5 | 17.7 | 16.4 | 2,161 | |
| 97 | +1.5 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 2,074 | |
| 98 | +1.5 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 2,026 | |
| 99 | +1.5 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 1,715 | |
| 100 | +1.5 | 17.5 | 17.1 | 2,029 | |
| 101 | +1.5 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 1,479 | |
| 102 | +1.5 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 1,901 | |
| 103 | +1.4 | 18.9 | 16.9 | 2,679 | |
| 104 | +1.4 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 1,866 | |
| 105 | +1.4 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 1,350 | |
| 106 | +1.4 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 1,093 | |
| 107 | Kel'el WareMIA | +1.4 | 17.6 | 14.7 | 1,421 |
| 108 | +1.3 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 1,406 | |
| 109 | +1.3 | 16.7 | 13.6 | 1,089 | |
| 110 | +1.3 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 1,471 | |
| 111 | +1.3 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 3,040 | |
| 112 | +1.3 | 14.8 | 12.3 | 1,300 | |
| 113 | +1.3 | 17.4 | 16.9 | 2,610 | |
| 114 | +1.3 | 15.2 | 14.5 | 1,592 | |
| 115 | +1.2 | 17.4 | 14.1 | 1,326 | |
| 116 | +1.2 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 1,874 | |
| 117 | +1.2 | 17.7 | 16.7 | 2,767 | |
| 118 | +1.2 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 1,541 | |
| 119 | +1.1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 2,108 | |
| 120 | +1.1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 1,883 | |
| 121 | +1.1 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 1,913 | |
| 122 | +1.0 | 19.6 | 18.3 | 1,963 | |
| 123 | +1.0 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 1,605 | |
| 124 | +1.0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 2,278 | |
| 125 | +0.9 | 14.7 | 12.4 | 1,433 | |
| 126 | +0.9 | 15.8 | 13.9 | 1,339 | |
| 127 | +0.9 | 17.8 | 17.6 | 2,203 | |
| 128 | +0.9 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 2,172 | |
| 129 | +0.9 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 2,550 | |
| 130 | +0.8 | 21.6 | 20.3 | 2,301 | |
| 131 | +0.8 | 16.6 | 14.4 | 2,896 | |
| 132 | +0.8 | 20.2 | 19.0 | 2,272 | |
| 133 | +0.8 | 18.4 | 17.4 | 1,417 | |
| 134 | +0.8 | 19.2 | 18.6 | 2,795 | |
| 135 | +0.7 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 1,760 | |
| 136 | +0.7 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 1,679 | |
| 137 | +0.7 | 14.0 | 13.6 | 1,004 | |
| 138 | +0.7 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 1,818 | |
| 139 | +0.7 | 17.8 | 17.4 | 2,136 | |
| 140 | Julian PhillipsCHI | +0.6 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 1,125 |
| 141 | +0.6 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 1,893 | |
| 142 | Oso IghodaroPHX | +0.6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 1,042 |
| 143 | +0.6 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 1,273 | |
| 144 | +0.5 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 1,475 | |
| 145 | +0.5 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 1,742 | |
| 146 | +0.5 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 1,505 | |
| 147 | +0.5 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 1,482 | |
| 148 | +0.5 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 2,606 | |
| 149 | +0.5 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 1,160 | |
| 150 | +0.5 | 16.6 | 16.3 | 1,762 | |
| 151 | +0.4 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 2,619 | |
| 152 | +0.4 | 17.4 | 16.0 | 1,262 | |
| 153 | +0.4 | 15.9 | 14.4 | 1,364 | |
| 154 | Vit KrejciATL | +0.3 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 1,153 |
| 155 | +0.3 | 16.2 | 15.3 | 2,595 | |
| 156 | +0.3 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 1,173 | |
| 157 | +0.3 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 2,388 | |
| 158 | +0.3 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 1,760 | |
| 159 | +0.3 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 2,054 | |
| 160 | +0.2 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 1,332 | |
| 161 | +0.2 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 1,005 | |
| 162 | +0.2 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 1,335 | |
| 163 | +0.2 | 15.8 | 15.7 | 1,143 | |
| 164 | +0.2 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 1,544 | |
| 165 | +0.2 | 16.6 | 13.6 | 1,242 | |
| 166 | +0.1 | 17.6 | 15.8 | 1,182 | |
| 167 | +0.0 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 2,242 | |
| 168 | 0.0 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 1,257 | |
| 169 | -0.0 | 17.6 | 16.3 | 2,227 | |
| 170 | -0.0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 1,652 | |
| 171 | -0.0 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 2,045 | |
| 172 | -0.2 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 1,514 | |
| 173 | -0.2 | 20.2 | 19.0 | 1,581 | |
| 174 | -0.2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 1,408 | |
| 175 | -0.2 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 1,492 | |
| 176 | -0.2 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 1,346 | |
| 177 | -0.2 | 15.4 | 15.9 | 2,449 | |
| 178 | -0.2 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 2,150 | |
| 179 | -0.2 | 15.2 | 14.0 | 1,917 | |
| 180 | -0.2 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 1,743 | |
| 181 | -0.2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 2,125 | |
| 182 | -0.3 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 1,119 | |
| 183 | -0.3 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 1,867 | |
| 184 | -0.3 | 16.4 | 16.7 | 1,868 | |
| 185 | -0.3 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 1,657 | |
| 186 | -0.3 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 1,842 | |
| 187 | -0.4 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 2,190 | |
| 188 | -0.4 | 23.7 | 20.7 | 1,169 | |
| 189 | -0.4 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 2,290 | |
| 190 | -0.4 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 1,059 | |
| 191 | -0.5 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 1,104 | |
| 192 | -0.5 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 2,004 | |
| 193 | -0.5 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 1,121 | |
| 194 | -0.5 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 1,933 | |
| 195 | -0.6 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 1,834 | |
| 196 | -0.6 | 15.1 | 13.7 | 1,062 | |
| 197 | -0.6 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 1,696 | |
| 198 | -0.6 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 1,787 | |
| 199 | Trey Murphy IIINOP | -0.6 | 17.2 | 16.4 | 1,856 |
| 200 | -0.6 | 17.9 | 15.4 | 1,210 | |
| 201 | -0.6 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 1,882 | |
| 202 | -0.7 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 2,698 | |
| 203 | -0.7 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 2,140 | |
| 204 | -0.7 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 1,984 | |
| 205 | -0.8 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 2,083 | |
| 206 | -0.8 | 17.4 | 16.1 | 1,546 | |
| 207 | -0.8 | 16.4 | 15.6 | 1,841 | |
| 208 | -1.0 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 1,234 | |
| 209 | -1.0 | 21.0 | 18.7 | 1,522 | |
| 210 | -1.0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 1,574 | |
| 211 | -1.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 1,526 | |
| 212 | -1.0 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 1,041 | |
| 213 | -1.1 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 1,012 | |
| 214 | -1.1 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 1,218 | |
| 215 | -1.1 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 1,890 | |
| 216 | -1.1 | 15.6 | 14.9 | 1,831 | |
| 217 | -1.1 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 1,544 | |
| 218 | -1.2 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 2,015 | |
| 219 | -1.2 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 1,972 | |
| 220 | -1.2 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 1,415 | |
| 221 | -1.3 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 1,349 | |
| 222 | -1.3 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 1,393 | |
| 223 | -1.3 | 16.7 | 14.3 | 1,256 | |
| 224 | -1.3 | 14.6 | 14.1 | 2,248 | |
| 225 | -1.3 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 1,168 | |
| 226 | -1.5 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 2,032 | |
| 227 | -1.5 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 1,844 | |
| 228 | Jamal SheadTOR | -1.5 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 1,464 |
| 229 | Nicolas ClaxtonBKN | -1.5 | 16.6 | 14.1 | 1,885 |
| 230 | Ben SheppardIND | -1.6 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 1,231 |
| 231 | -1.6 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 2,133 | |
| 232 | -1.6 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 2,094 | |
| 233 | -1.6 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 1,045 | |
| 234 | -1.6 | 15.2 | 14.2 | 1,698 | |
| 235 | -1.7 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 1,601 | |
| 236 | -1.7 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 1,802 | |
| 237 | -1.7 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 2,162 | |
| 238 | -1.9 | 14.9 | 13.7 | 1,518 | |
| 239 | -1.9 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 1,525 | |
| 240 | -2.0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 1,219 | |
| 241 | -2.0 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 1,435 | |
| 242 | -2.0 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 1,948 | |
| 243 | Jonathan MogboTOR | -2.1 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 1,287 |
| 244 | -2.1 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 1,631 | |
| 245 | -2.2 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 1,960 | |
| 246 | -2.2 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 1,816 | |
| 247 | -2.2 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 1,190 | |
| 248 | Gradey DickTOR | -2.3 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 1,591 |
| 249 | -2.3 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 1,655 | |
| 250 | -2.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 1,070 | |
| 251 | -2.4 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 2,106 | |
| 252 | -2.4 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 1,040 | |
| 253 | Ronald Holland IIDET | -2.4 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 1,246 |
| 254 | -2.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 1,385 | |
| 255 | -2.4 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 1,748 | |
| 256 | -2.4 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 1,312 | |
| 257 | -2.5 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 1,373 | |
| 258 | -2.5 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 1,208 | |
| 259 | -2.6 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 1,150 | |
| 260 | -2.6 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 1,266 | |
| 261 | Isaiah CollierUTA | -2.9 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 1,838 |
| 262 | -3.0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 1,926 | |
| 263 | -3.1 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 1,255 | |
| 264 | -3.3 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 1,323 | |
| 265 | -3.5 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 1,045 | |
| 266 | -3.9 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 1,924 | |
| 267 | Tidjane SalaunCHA | -4.6 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 1,246 |
| 268 | Carlton CarringtonWAS | -4.6 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 2,456 |
| 269 | -5.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 1,056 | |
| 270 | Nick Smith Jr.CHA | -5.2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 1,368 |
Keel Stats Pro: The ratings' breakdown: offense, defense, RAPM, on/off
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Regular season. Ratings shrink small samples hard: a bench player's Impact stays near zero until the minutes say otherwise. RAPM penalty λ 3000, Impact λ 5000, chosen by cross-validation on held-out games.