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Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat: preview and player stats (Nov 14, 2026)

Regular season8:00 PM

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat

Detroit Pistons
Miami Heat

Kaseya Center · Miami, FL

Head to head: Pistons vs Heat, series and next game

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Keel projection

How the projections do →

Made before tip-off from the players available and the season so far; frozen at tip-off.

DET 64%MIA 36%

The win chance is blended with the sportsbooks' (their margin removed) while our model learns; the margin and what moves it are the model's own.

Expected margin
DET by 6.2
What moves it (MIA)
Net rating so far this season-3.3 pts
Rest (back-to-backs)-2.2 pts
Roster strength (Impact × minutes)-1.9 pts

3 more inputs with Pro

Pro

What moves DET at MIA, point by point — with Pro

See plans

Matchup preview

This season before the game

Matchup odds

63DET
37MIA

Opened DET 63

From 9 sportsbooks’ moneylines with the vig removed: the market’s view, not a pick.

Prediction markets

  • Kalshi DET 64% +0.9 pts vs sportsbooks
  • Polymarket DET 65% +1.9 pts vs sportsbooks

Exchanges trade on their own money and take no vig; bold marks a gap of 2 points or more.

Keel projection, blended with the market: DET 64%How we project

Who wins?

DET

Season leaders, per game

MIA
The teams side by side: Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat compared, with league ranks
DETStatMIA
8–3Record6–6
Offense
7.6(better), 7th in the leagueNet rating19th in the league, -2.8
113.6(better), 11th in the leagueOffensive rating14th in the league, 111.9
100.0, 24th in the leaguePace3rd in the league, 103.8
54.7(better), 10th in the leagueeFG%13th in the league, 54.1
12.1, 10th in the leagueTOV%8th in the league, 12.0(better)
25.7(better), 19th in the leagueOREB%28th in the league, 22.8
0.287, 14th in the leagueFT rate6th in the league, 0.310(better)
Defense
106.0(better), 4th in the leagueDefensive rating24th in the league, 114.7
50.4(better), 5th in the leagueOpp. eFG%30th in the league, 58.0
14.6(better), 4th in the leagueOpp. TOV%8th in the league, 13.8
71.7, 23rd in the leagueDREB%7th in the league, 75.2(better)
0.293, 19th in the leagueOpp. FT rate7th in the league, 0.251(better)

This season's meetings

Injury report

Detroit Pistons

  • Jalen DurenOut· back Nov 24Report updated ·
    Report note

    Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain (2026-11-14, DET@MIA). Prior reporting (2026-11-08): Duren (hamstring) has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Hunter Patterson of The Athletic reports. Duren is progressing in his rehab after suffering a right hamstring strain Oct. 23, though he'll remain on the inactive list for at least the next two weeks while ramping up toward a return to game action. Paul Reed should continue to play a sizable role in Duren's stead.

  • Isaiah JoeOut· back Nov 17Report updated ·
    Report note

    Injury/Illness - Right Hip Contusion (2026-11-14, DET@MIA). Prior reporting (2026-11-09): Joe (hip) is out for Monday against the Wizards. Joe is missing a seventh consecutive contest with a bruised hip. His next chance to play comes Thursday in a road rematch with Washington.

  • Elijah HarklessQuestionableReport updated ·
    Report note

    G League - Two-Way (2026-11-14, DET@MIA).

  • Chaz LanierOutReport updated ·
    Report note

    G League - On Assignment (2026-11-14, DET@MIA).

  • Isaac JonesQuestionableReport updated ·
    Report note

    G League - Two-Way (2026-11-14, DET@MIA).

  • Ebuka OkorieOutReport updated ·
    Report note

    G League - On Assignment (2026-11-14, DET@MIA).

  • Ugonna OnyensoOut· back Nov 14Report updated ·
    Report note

    G League - Two-Way (2026-11-14, DET@MIA). Prior reporting (2026-11-11): Onyenso agreed to a two-way contract with the Pistons on Thursday. The No. 53 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Onyenso appears poised to see run in the G League after putting pen to paper on a two-way deal. He'll likely face an uphill battle to carve out a role in the rotation, so Detroit will presumably allow him to continue his development with Motor City.

Miami Heat

  • Pelle LarssonOut· back Nov 14Report updated ·
    Report note

    Larsson (illness) is out for Friday's game against Cleveland. Larsson is sidelined for the first half of this back-to-back set with an illness. The expectation is that Andrew Wiggins will move back into the starting lineup after beginning the campaign as a member of the first unit.

  • Klay ThompsonOut· back Nov 14Report updated ·
    Report note

    Thompson (ankle) is out for Friday's game against the Cavaliers. The Heat sent mixed signals regarding the status of Thompson, first listing him as probable and later questionable before ruling him out altogether. With Andrew Wiggins already in line to fill in for Pelle Larsson (illness) on Friday, rookie second-rounder Ryan Conwell could be preparing for his first career start.

Key players · DET: Detroit Pistons key players: season averages and the last 5 games
PlayerMINPTSREBAST
Cade Cunningham34.525.05.27.9
Duncan Robinson31.718.11.92.2
Ausar Thompson28.810.18.75.0
Daniss Jenkins27.413.53.84.3
Paul Reed26.911.57.72.3
Key players · MIA: Miami Heat key players: season averages and the last 5 games
PlayerMINPTSREBAST
Davion Mitchell36.016.92.39.1
Bam Adebayo33.619.48.83.3
Giannis Antetokounmpo32.528.512.34.9
Pelle Larsson29.511.43.53.5
Andrew Wiggins26.28.72.81.7

Last five games

Detroit Pistons: Detroit Pistons: last five games
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
Nov 12 @ WASWon 144–140−10.5, did not cover222.5, went over
Nov 9 vs WASWon 122–111−9.5, covered218.5, went over
Nov 8 vs LALLost 116–121−7.5, did not cover217.5, went over
Nov 4 vs PHILost 106–112−2.5, did not cover219.5, went under
Nov 2 @ CHAWon 124–91−5.5, covered209.5, went over
Miami Heat: Miami Heat: last five games
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
Nov 13 vs CLEWon 133–121−2.5, covered235.5, went over
Nov 10 @ UTAWon 115–109−8.5, did not cover227.5, went under
Nov 8 @ SACWon 114–108−11.5, did not cover235.5, went under
Nov 5 @ GSWLost 100–120+3.5, did not cover238.5, went under
Nov 4 @ LACWon 117–116−6.5, did not cover233.5, went under

Standings

Full standings
Eastern Conference
Team
1BOS102.833–9-1
2PHI103.7690.57-3
3DET83.7271.57-3
4ATL76.5383.55-5
5MIA66.50046-4
6NYK66.50046-4
7CLE67.4624.54-6

9 more injury costs and matchups — with Pro

Pro

What each absence costs in Keel Impact, the key players’ last five games, each defense by position and both teams against the line — with Pro

See plans

Player props

Each player at the line most sportsbooks have, and how often he went over it.

All player props
Last 10 vs line oldest → latest
Bam AdebayoMIA vs DET 17.558% 12 games80%70%58%19.436.6 minutes and 14.8 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 20, 8, 24, 27, 16, 35, 18, 18, 11, 37
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA vs DET 28.567% 12 games60%60%67%28.533.4 minutes and 19.4 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 14, 29, 24, 31, 30, 27, 20, 29, 30, 37
Ausar ThompsonDET @ MIA 9.560% 10 games60%60%60%10.130.9 minutes and 9.8 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 11, 4, 11, 7, 11, 14, 11, 7, 8, 17
Cade CunninghamDET @ MIA 25.546% 11 games60%50%46%2535.8 minutes and 19.6 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 16, 26, 19, 30, 20, 33, 26, 14, 17, 52
Daniss JenkinsDET @ MIA 14.546% 11 games60%50%46%13.530.8 minutes and 10.8 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 15, 18, 11, 14, 6, 2, 5, 31, 22, 21
Davion MitchellMIA vs DET 13.575% 12 games80%80%75%16.939.6 minutes and 13.6 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 22, 21, 10, 15, 15, 11, 22, 17, 19, 22
Duncan RobinsonDET @ MIA 15.564% 11 games60%60%64%18.134.2 minutes and 12.0 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 17, 21, 12, 13, 17, 24, 27, 12, 22, 13
John CollinsDET @ MIA 10.536% 11 games40%40%36%10.626.1 minutes and 8.2 shots a game, last 5 gamesOldest to newest: 23, 16, 2, 4, 4, 4, 16, 8, 24, 10

Ruled out, off the board (2): Klay Thompson (MIA), Pelle Larsson (MIA)

Pro

His record against tonight’s opponent, the starters out tonight and the market’s chance of the over for every prop — with Pro

See plans

Shading shows how one-sided the rate is, over or under:60%+80%+95%+

Line: the one most sportsbooks have. Over: how often he beat today’s line in his games — the season, his last 5, 10 and 20 — not each game’s own line (last season’s games until he has three this season). Pro adds his record against tonight’s opponent at today’s line over every season we hold, the starters on his team out tonight by the injury report, and the market’s chance of the over, with the margin taken out.

Popular props

Every stat at once: the props the most sportsbooks price, and the ones whose line moved furthest since it opened.

Most priced

  1. Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints · MIA vs DET28.52 books
  2. Bam AdebayoPoints · MIA vs DET17.52 books
  3. Klay ThompsonPoints · MIA vs DET13.52 books
  4. Davion MitchellPoints · MIA vs DET13.52 books
  5. Pelle LarssonPoints · MIA vs DET10.52 books

Most moved

  1. Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints · MIA vs DET28.52 books
How far each line moved, and how it went, with Pro

Sportsbooks only, at the line most of them have now. A move is measured for the size of the line, as on the cheat sheet. Trends from the market, not picks.

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Sportsbook lines are shown as reference data. Keel Stats takes no bets and gives no picks. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible gaming

The box score appears at tip-off.

Detroit Pistons

Miami Heat

Season series

DET 1, MIA 0
  1. Oct 23Detroit Pistons 128, Miami Heat 111
  2. Nov 14 · this gameDetroit Pistons at Miami Heat
  3. Feb 25Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
  4. Apr 4Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons

Before and after

Detroit Pistons
Miami Heat

This week’s games

NBA schedule: every team